Dollar Falls Against Yen on Bets Fed Will Lower Rate 0.75-Point

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a sixth straight day against the yen and traded near a record low versus the euro as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.75 percentage point this month.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which compares the currency with those of six trading partners, dropped as futures showed a 74 percent likelihood the Fed will reduce rates to 2.25 percent. Last week, traders saw no chance of a cut that steep. Canada's currency fell after the Bank of Canada cut rates today to help offset a slump in exports to the U.S.

``The dollar will remain under pressure,'' said Omer Esiner, an analyst at currency-trading company Ruesch International Inc. in Washington. ``The U.S. economy is looking weak.''

The dollar fell to 103.08 yen at 9:10 a.m. in New York, from 103.49 yen yesterday, when it fell to 102.62 yen, the lowest since Jan. 28, 2005. The U.S. currency traded at $1.5202 per euro, from $1.5204 yesterday, when it touched $1.5275, the weakest level since the European currency's 1999 debut.

``Don't fight the dollar weakness,'' a team of strategists at Zurich-based UBS AG, led by Mansoor Mohi-uddin, wrote in a research report published today. This week's U.S. data ``will likely increasingly suggest a recession,'' they wrote.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York was at 73.584 after declining to a record low of 73.354 yesterday. The slump in the U.S. currency helped push the price of oil to a record of $103.95 yesterday and gold to an all-time high of $989.54 an ounce.

`Grossly Misaligned'

The yen advanced to 156.71 per euro from 157.35.

UBS Wealth Management Research, a unit of UBS, wrote in a separate report that the world's foreign-exchange markets are ``grossly misaligned'' and Asian currencies may ``appreciate sharply.''

The Singapore dollar reached S$1.3897 against the U.S. currency, a decade-high, before trading at S$1.3904, from S$1.3910 yesterday. The Taiwan dollar advanced 0.6 percent to NT$30.922 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, also known as the Aussie, fell as the central bank governor said there is evidence consumer spending is moderating. The central bank raised the main rate to 7.25 percent today, the highest in 12 years. The Aussie was at 93.29 U.S. cents, from 93.96 cents yesterday and 94.98 on Feb. 28, the highest since March 1984.

``The Australian dollar is likely to be sold hard in the near-term,'' Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, one of the world's 10 biggest currency traders, wrote in a note to clients. A support level at 92.75 cents per dollar ``looks set to be broken,'' he said.

Canadian Rates

The Canadian dollar fell to 99.36 Canadian cents per U.S. dollar, from 99 cents yesterday, after the central bank cut Canada's benchmark rate by a half-point to 3.5 percent and said further ``stimulus'' will likely be required.

Japan's currency also climbed 1.3 percent to 95.97 against the Aussie and 1 percent to 82.68 per New Zealand dollar as widening credit-market losses prompted investors to reduce so- called carry trades

Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized nations, compares with 8.25 percent in New Zealand and 4 percent in Europe. In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher rates, earning the difference between the two. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.

 

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